49 / 120
49
If the forecasts by the National Association of Vehicle Manufactur-
ers (ANFAVEA) are correct, this year Brazilians will buy 3.498 million
vehicles, exactly the same as in 2014.
In terms of production, however, the expectation is different: au-
tomakers will have to work hard to expand the volume of cars assem-
bled in 2014, which totaled 3.15 million units, by 4.1%. This addition
of 129,000 vehicles manufactured will be needed to meet demand
from abroad. “We will recover some of the exports lost last year,” says
Luiz Moan, president of the organization.
In presenting the forecasts, Moan made a point of saying that
the data are the result of extensive technical studies based on a
“realistic scenario,” done in a “worst case” scenario. So, he made
it clear that any improvement at all will be on the scenario at the
beginning of January.
Among the positive factors cited to support these expectations,
ANFAVEA’s president cites the new legislation facilitating the recov-
ery of assets in the event of default, causing the banking system to
finance again. Another point in favor of the domestic industry is the
appreciation of the dollar against the real, which raises the price of
imported cars and reduces their sales, leaving room Brazilian-made
cars to close the gap.
Regarding the possible fear of a withdrawal of programs encourag-
ing the sector, such as The Truck Fleet Renewal Program and Exportar-
Auto (which ANFAVEA says is designed to improve Brazil’s competi-
tiveness in the international arena and allow the export of 1 million of
vehicles and 40,000 self-propelled machines a year by 2017), Luiz
Moan believes both will continue, although the Fleet Renewal Program
has been resized.
Initially, the program was to renew 30,000 trucks over 30 years of
age. Now, it will begin on a trial basis, with a small, as year undefined,
number of vehicles for the authorities to assess its impact on traffic
flow and mobility, medical and hospital costs via fewer accidents. The
fact is, this program will start in 2015, says Moan, basing his convic-
tion on the fact that the authorities are aware of its importance.
As for the Exportar-Auto, Moan says some measures have al-
ready been implemented. Speaking of understandings with the new
team in the federal government, he says both the minister Joaquim
Levy, at Finance, and Armando Monteiro, at Industry and Trade, agree
with increasing Brazil’s share on the international market. So the pro-
gram will continue,” he stresses.
On the macroeconomic state of Brazil, Luiz Moan reveals that
ANFAVEA is works expecting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of
between 0.5% and 0.9%, with inflation of 6.5%, a base rate of 13%
and the dollar worth R $ 3.10.
Tying and winning
Vehicle sales in Brazil will be the same in 2015 as in 2014, says ANFAVEA. But
production will grow by 4.1%, fueled by expansion in exports
Quanto ao Exportar-Auto, Moan infor-
mou que algumas medidas já foram im-
plantadas no ano passado. Ao falar dos en-
tendimentos com a nova equipe do governo
federal, destacou que “tanto o ministro Jo-
aquim Levy, da Fazenda, quanto Armando
Monteiro, da Indústria e Comércio, estão de
acordo com aumentar a inserção do Brasil
no mercado internacional. Então o progra-
ma deve continuar”, enfatizou.
Sobre a macroeconomia do País, Luiz
Moan revelou que a Anfavea trabalha com
expectativa de crescimento do Produto In-
terno Bruto (PIB) entre 0,5% e 0,9%, com
inflação de 6,5% ao ano, taxa Selic de 13%
e dólar a R$ 3,10.